In short: "Most people don't understand that 30-year TIPS do not protect you from rising interest rates" — the nominal/TIPS yield gap has been constant for six years, so both rose ~500bp and "went down just as much as the nominals." "They haven't been [a safe haven] for years."
People afraid of long Treasuries often switch to 30-year TIPS, thinking inflation protection will save them. It didn't: over six years both kinds of bond saw their yields rise by the same ~5 points, so both lost about the same. Long TIPS protect against inflation, not against rising interest rates.
42:06They say that they want to protect themselves from the long-end nominals. They've seen that they've underperformed. So, they want to buy long-term TIPS. They want to buy 30-year TIPS. Most people don't understand that 30-year TIPS do not protect you from rising interest rates. If you do a chart of the yield on the nominal bond and the yield on the TIPS, you'll notice that they've moved exactly the same for the past six years.
In short: Not a hedge: the 30-year TIPS vs 30-year nominal spread "has been absolutely stable for the past 5 years" — the same rate rise since end-2021. "Do not buy long-term TIPS thinking that it's going to somehow hedge you if you don't like long-term 30-year nominal Treasuries."
A popular idea says: if you fear long-term Treasuries, buy the inflation-protected version instead. Gundlach shows why that doesn't work — over the past five years, 30-year TIPS and ordinary 30-year Treasuries moved almost identically, so both suffered the same rise in rates. Inflation protection doesn't protect you from rising real interest rates. Short-dated TIPS are fine; long-dated ones are not a hedge.
12:13But it's obvious that these lines are very very similar. Just look at the bottom which is the difference between the two and we see that it's been absolutely stable for the past 5 years. So TIPS do not hedge you. If you don't like nominal Treasuries, there's no reason to believe that 30-year TIPS are going to protect you because they've had exactly the same rate rise since the end of 2021 as the nominal bonds.
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